就业强劲就有inflation concern。inflation and price stability 是fed的mandate,所以要升息。所以bond yield在前,升息是reactive。你给的link说得也很明白啊。on a larger scheme of things, they are all indrectl correlated。variable rate 是most sensitive to red rate,直接影响。causation。
房价涨跌和利率涨跌没有必要预测,也没有人能预测。Powell 7月都讲明了, fed is not going to provide guidances because things are turbulent but be near-term data dependent. 就这样吧。你认为是啥就是啥。