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囔，这儿，Stephen的报告，2022年，虽然数据有点老，凑合看吧

canadabever(maplesyrup)

We estimate the share of variable-rate mortgages with fixed payments that reached the so-called trigger rate—the interest rate at which mortgage payments no longer cover the principal. Amid rising interest rates, this share was close to 50% at the end of October 2022 and could potentially reach 65% in 2023.

Full Story:
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/11/staff-analytical-notes-2022-19/

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Last Updated: 2023-9-10
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枫下家园 / 枫下觅巢 / Manulife Investment Management的全球主经济师和决策师Frances Donald说：Bank of Canada is done hiking rates but it can't tell us that because housing market could get inflamed again. -allpurpose(不懂装懂的ap用户); 2023-9-9 (#15655019@0) +1

Too young, too simple, sometimes naïve 哈哈 -canadabever(maplesyrup); 2023-9-10 (#15655031@0) +2

你在说谁，那个经济师还是我？ -allpurpose(不懂装懂的ap用户); 2023-9-10 (#15655034@0)

Frances, 好像2008本科毕业的，这种水平的公开措辞，搞得就像BoC就跟和老百姓做迷藏似的 -canadabever(maplesyrup); 2023-9-10 (#15655241@0)

Barry Schwartz (chief investment officer&portfolio manager at Baskin Wealth Management) 认为Bank of Canada has to be finishing raising rates and start thinking about cutting rates sooner rather than later. 明年很多人renew mortgage，压力巨大 -allpurpose(不懂装懂的ap用户); 2023-9-10 (#15655272@0) +2

这不是秘密，BoC加息之前就组织团队研究过加息后mortgage renew的情景，最初打算加到约莫60-70%左右renewal的时间点就够了（大概今年年中时候），显然事与愿违，CPI非常sticky，就业很强劲，spending依然很强，这会至少得等到90%左右 -canadabever(maplesyrup); 2023-9-10 (#15655630@0) +1

15年从业经历不短了。不能有理有据就事论事的反驳，反而从哪年毕业来说事，这种人身攻击太没意思了吧。 -daofaziran(daofaziran); 2023-9-10 (#15655655@0) +5

关键没理没据啊，有半点数据不？还不如TMX发布的数据呢，这不纯忽悠人嘛。而且哪句话人身攻击了？这公开措辞，本身就欠妥，还BoC不敢告诉我们:(，而且这纯属她的个人言论， BoC的9月6号原话是我们还担心通胀压力，准备还要加息 -canadabever(maplesyrup); 2023-9-10 {195} (#15655659@0) +4
“However, Governing Council remains concerned about the persistence of underlying inflationary pressures, and is prepared to increase the policy interest rate further if needed. ”
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/09/fad-press-release-2023-09-06/

BoC原话是说：“做好在如果有需要的情况下加息的准备”。你省掉了很重要的英文 “if needed”。换句话说，BoC不是计划或准备加息，而是说还有加息的可能性而已。 -jtrt(st); 2023-9-11 (#15656782@0) +8

囔，这儿，Stephen的报告，2022年，虽然数据有点老，凑合看吧 -canadabever(maplesyrup); 2023-9-10 {1008} (#15655654@0)
We estimate the share of variable-rate mortgages with fixed payments that reached the so-called trigger rate—the interest rate at which mortgage payments no longer cover the principal. Amid rising interest rates, this share was close to 50% at the end of October 2022 and could potentially reach 65% in 2023.
Full Story:
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/11/staff-analytical-notes-2022-19/

Desjardins银行的senior director at Canadian Economics，Randall Bartlett接受采访说，Bank of Canada has done largely what needs to be done. He thinks we could see rate cuts as early as first quarter of 2024. 这种观点目前占据主导。 -allpurpose(不懂装懂的ap用户); 2023-9-10 {52} (#15655331@0) +5
目前为止，我只听到1、2个分析师说今年还会再加一次息。

好歹也quote点五大行的经济师的原话啊，这件事情上我们要尊重数据，至少目前资本市场显示年底前多半再加25点，这还得看原油和19号的CPI的走向，基本肯定往坏的方向，减息？资本市场都2024年底都不敢这么交易：） -canadabever(maplesyrup); 2023-9-10 (#15655615@0) +3

美国不加，加拿大不会加，美国现在讨论的是明年一季度还是二季度降息，加拿大看政府给央行多大的压力，今年降息是有可能的。 -czczcz(看得清); 2023-9-10 (#15656163@0) +2
“多半再加25点” 的解读有误。相反，该表数据显示年底前再加息是在50%概率附近游荡。另外加拿大主要银行RBC、TD等都认为不再加息，或加息概率小于50%（从50%下降）。 -jtrt(st); 2023-9-11 {825} (#15656785@0) +5
https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/bank-of-canada-left-5-overnight-rate-unchanged-rbc-expect-itll-stay-there-through-2023-20230906/
RBC：Absent a large reacceleration in price pressures, we expect the BoC, Fed, and ECB to leave their policy rates unchanged for the rest of 2023.
TD：September 6, 2023
Markets are still in the 'will they, won't they' camp, with pricing for another hike around 50%. Given that the slowdown looks to continue, we think the bar for another hike has been raised.

过完周末大家还在预测？就还有两月就知道今年还加不加息了，有高额贷款的当然要做好最坏打算，有足够现金周转两年的就无忧。现在谁说啥都是叫预测（猜）,没用 -winonca(小温); 2023-9-11 (#15656827@0) +1

用事实纠正这里的错误，误导而已。不是个人的预测，更不涉及现金周转之类的。 -jtrt(st); 2023-9-11 (#15656855@0) +3

这0.25是房盼盼最后的稻草。自然要大做文章 -idontknowa(idontknow); 2023-9-11 (#15657113@0) +1

囔，这儿，Stephen的报告，2022年，虽然数据有点老，凑合看吧

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